Spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry event features and their transition across the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South Asia

Abstract. The increasing rate of occurrence extreme events (droughts and floods) their rapid transition magnify the associated socio-economic impacts with respect to those caused by individual event. Understanding spatio-temporal evolution wet–dry collectively, characteristics, (wet dry wet) is therefore significant identify locate most vulnerable hotspots, providing basis for adaptation mitigation measures. Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South Asia was selected as a case study, where relevance has not been assessed yet, despite clear evidence climate change region. standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at monthly timescale applied detect characterize wet period 1981–2014. results temporal variations SPEI showed strong basin climatic features El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) end 1997, prevalence before after 1997 respectively. spatial analysis show higher susceptibility monsoon-dominated region towards events, more intense occurring eastern part, whereas severity duration are featured southwestern part basin. In contrast, westerlies-dominated found be hotspot duration, severity, intensity. Moreover, surrounding Himalaya divide line were hotspots events.